Chance of Rain Making Sense of Precipitation Forecasts

Chance of rain, aka the chance of precipitation and probability of precipitation (PoPs), tells you the likelihood (expressed as a percentage) that a location within your forecast area will see measurable precipitation (at least 0.01 inch) during a specified time period. Lets say tomorrows forecast says your city has a 30% chance of precipitation. This does not mean: Theres a 30% chance it will rain and a 70% chance it wontThree out of 10 times when the weather is similar, it will rain  Precipitation will fall 30% of the day (or night)Thirty percent of the forecast area will experience rain, snow, or storms Rather, the correct interpretation would be: there is a 30% chance that 0.01 inch (or more) of rain will fall somewhere (at any one or multiple locations) within the forecast area. PoP Adjectives Sometimes a forecast wont mention the percent chance of precipitation outright, but instead, will use descriptive words to suggest it. Whenever you see or hear them, heres how to know what percent that is: Forecast Terminology PoP Precipitation's Areal Coverage -- Less than 20% Drizzle, sprinkle (flurries) Slight chance 20% Isolated Chance 30-50% Scattered Likely 60-70% Numerous Notice that no descriptive words are listed for probabilities of precipitation of 80%, 90%, or 100% This is because when the chance of rain is this high, its basically a given that precipitation will occur. Instead, youll see words like periods of, occasional, or intermittent used, each conveying that precipitation is promised. You may also see the type of precipitation punctuated with a period;  rain, snow, showers, and thunderstorms. If we apply these expressions to our example of a 30% chance of rain, the forecast could read in any of the following ways: A 30% chance of showers A chance of showers Scattered showers. How Much Rain Will Accumulate Not only will your forecast tell you how likely your city is to see rain and how much of your city it will cover  itll also let you know the volume of rain that will fall. This intensity is indicated by the following terms: Terminology Rainfall Rate Very light 0.01 inch per hour Light 0.01 to 0.1 inch per hour Moderate 0.1 to 0.3 inches per hour Heavy 0.3 inches per hour How Long the Rain Will Last Most rain forecasts will specify a period of time when the rain can be expected (​after 1 p.m., before 10 p.m., etc.). If yours doesnt, pay attention to whether the chance of rain is advertised in your daytime or nighttime forecast. If its included in your daytime forecast (that is, This afternoon, Monday, etc.), look for it to occur sometime from 6 a.m. to 6 p.m. local time. If its included in your overnight forecast (Tonight, Monday Night, etc.), then expect it between 6 p.m. to 6 a.m. local time. DIY Chance of Rain Forecast Meteorologists arrive at precipitation forecasts by considering two things: How confident they are that precipitation will fall somewhere within the forecast area.How much of the area will get measurable (at least 0.01 inch) rain or snow. This relationship is expressed by the simple formula: Chance of rain Confidence x Areal coverage Where confidence and areal coverage are both percentages in decimal form (that is 60% 0.6). In the U.S. and Canada, the chance of precipitation values is always rounded to increments of 10%. The UKs Met Office rounds theirs to 5%.

Notes On Faith And Faith Essay - 1480 Words

What is faith? Faith is the seed that is planted in the heart of man by God. Faith is the substance of things hoped for, the evidence of things not seen â€Å"Hebrews 11:1†. Faith is an important element in a Christ life. Faith shapes my life, my mind and heart along with my actions and relationships. And gives my live a meaning. Faith is expectations beyond my many blessings that God has in store for me and unfolds the magnitude of His purpose. It is the substance and the assurance that we hope for. â€Å"Hebrews 11:6.† Imagine in 2006 on a snowy morning I got up from my bed, went to the bathroom near the kitchen and turned on the light. I noticed smoke coming from behind the toilet. At that point I ran wake up my husband, kids and granddaughter. We all immediately left the house and made sure our neighbor got out safely. Standing outside in the snow at 2:00pm in the morning, you could see the fire racing up the side window of the house. 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Dickinsons` Poems Evaluation Essay Example For Students

Dickinsons` Poems Evaluation Essay Emily Dickinsons poems, ?Because I Could Not Stop For Death? and ?IHeard A Fly Buzz-When I Died,? are both about one of lifes few certainties,death. However, that is where the similarities end. Although Dickinson wroteboth poems, their ideas about what lies after death differ. In one, thereappears to be life after death, but in the other there is nothing. A number ofclues in each piece help to determine which poem believes in what. The cluesin ?I heard a Fly buzz-when I died,? point to a disbelief in an afterlife. In thispoem, a woman is lying in bed with her family or friends standing all aroundwaiting for her to die. While the family is waiting for her to pass on, she iswaiting for ?the King. ..? This symbolizes some sort of god that will take heraway. As the woman dies, her eyes, or windows as they are referred to in thepoem, fail and then she ?. ..could not see to see-.? As she died she saw ?thelight? but then her eyes, or windows, failed and she saw nothing. This is thesuggestion of there being no afterlife. The womans soul drifted off intonothingness because there was no afterlife for it to travel to. This is thecomplete opposite belief about afterlife in Dickinsons other poem, ?BecauseI Could Not Stop for Death.? In the piece, ?Because I Could Not Stop ForDeath,? Dickinson tells the story of a woman who is being taken away byDeath. The speaker in the poem clearly states that she will not stop for Deathbut that it will have to come and get her. This is illustrated in the second lineof the poem ?Because I could not stop for Death- He kindly stopped forme.? ?The Carriage held but just Ourselves-And Immortality.? The idea ofimmortality is the first indication that this poem believes in an afterlife. In manyreligions, where there is a grim reaper type spirit, this being will deliver apersons soul to another place, usually heaven or hell. In the third stanza thespeaker talks of how she and Death passed the school, the ?Fields of GazingGrain-We passed the Setting Sun.? This stanza is referring to the womanlooking bac on her own life as she is dying. This would not be possiblewithout an afterlife because if the soul were to simply drift away intonothingness, it wouldnt be able to reflect its lifetime. After this Dickinsonpresents the idea of the coldness of death in saying ?The Dews drewquivering and chill.? This is when we know for sure that the woman is in factdead. In the fifth stanza, Death and the woman pause before ?.. .a House thatseemed A Swelling of the Ground- The Roof was scarcely visible- TheCornice in the Ground-.? Even though the poem does not come out and sayit, it is likely that this grave is the womans own. If this is true, then her spiritor soul must be what is looking at the ?house. ? In most religions, the idea ofspirits and souls usually mean that there is an afterlife. It is not until the sixthand final stanza where the audience gets solid evidence that this poembelieves in an afterlife. The woman recalls how it has been ?.. .Centuries- andyet feels shorter than the Day I first surmised the Horses Heads were towardEternity-.? To the soul, it has been at least a hundred years since Deathvisited her, but to the woman, it has felt like less than a day. Because a humanbody cant live for hundreds of years, the soul is who has come to therealization that so much time has passed. .uae4a0c4357002fd3948b107d6455df51 , .uae4a0c4357002fd3948b107d6455df51 .postImageUrl , .uae4a0c4357002fd3948b107d6455df51 .centered-text-area { min-height: 80px; position: relative; } .uae4a0c4357002fd3948b107d6455df51 , .uae4a0c4357002fd3948b107d6455df51:hover , .uae4a0c4357002fd3948b107d6455df51:visited , .uae4a0c4357002fd3948b107d6455df51:active { border:0!important; } .uae4a0c4357002fd3948b107d6455df51 .clearfix:after { content: ""; display: table; clear: both; } .uae4a0c4357002fd3948b107d6455df51 { display: block; transition: background-color 250ms; webkit-transition: background-color 250ms; width: 100%; opacity: 1; transition: opacity 250ms; webkit-transition: opacity 250ms; background-color: #95A5A6; } .uae4a0c4357002fd3948b107d6455df51:active , .uae4a0c4357002fd3948b107d6455df51:hover { opacity: 1; transition: opacity 250ms; webkit-transition: opacity 250ms; background-color: #2C3E50; } .uae4a0c4357002fd3948b107d6455df51 .centered-text-area { width: 100%; position: relative ; } .uae4a0c4357002fd3948b107d6455df51 .ctaText { border-bottom: 0 solid #fff; color: #2980B9; font-size: 16px; font-weight: bold; margin: 0; padding: 0; text-decoration: underline; } .uae4a0c4357002fd3948b107d6455df51 .postTitle { color: #FFFFFF; font-size: 16px; font-weight: 600; margin: 0; padding: 0; width: 100%; } .uae4a0c4357002fd3948b107d6455df51 .ctaButton { background-color: #7F8C8D!important; color: #2980B9; border: none; border-radius: 3px; box-shadow: none; font-size: 14px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 26px; moz-border-radius: 3px; text-align: center; text-decoration: none; text-shadow: none; width: 80px; min-height: 80px; background: url(https://artscolumbia.org/wp-content/plugins/intelly-related-posts/assets/images/simple-arrow.png)no-repeat; position: absolute; right: 0; top: 0; } .uae4a0c4357002fd3948b107d6455df51:hover .ctaButton { background-color: #34495E!important; } .uae4a0c4357002fd3948b107d6455df51 .centered-text { display: table; height: 80px; padding-left : 18px; top: 0; } .uae4a0c4357002fd3948b107d6455df51 .uae4a0c4357002fd3948b107d6455df51-content { display: table-cell; margin: 0; padding: 0; padding-right: 108px; position: relative; vertical-align: middle; width: 100%; } .uae4a0c4357002fd3948b107d6455df51:after { content: ""; display: block; clear: both; } READ: In Twilight of the Idols Nietzsche discusses his views on Christianity, other philosophers, and authors of his time Essay The final part with the horses refersto the horse drawn carriage the woman was riding in when she passed away.In those two final lines, the horses seem to be leading her into Eternity, or intoan afterlife. Finally, these two poems deal with similar topics however theyare entirely different in that on believes in life after death and the other doesnot. These two poems raise the question in whether or not there is anythingafter death, but that question is left to be answered until our final day onEarth. Poetry